No, Cloud Seeding Did Not Cause the Devastating Texas Floods

In the wake of a disaster, it’s not uncommon for people to look for answers anywhere they can find them. The devastating floods in Texas are no exception. As communities grapple with the immense loss and destruction caused by swiftly rising waters, some individuals have sought explanations in unconventional places, leading to the spread of conspiracy theories.

One such theory points the finger at a practice known as cloud seeding, specifically targeting a startup called Rainmaker. Proponents of this theory claim that Rainmaker’s operations caused the storm to drop significantly more rain than it would have naturally, thereby contributing to the catastrophic flooding. However, this assertion is not supported by scientific data or expert consensus.

It is true that Rainmaker was operating in the area a few days prior to the storm. But despite the online chatter and accusations, leading atmospheric scientists are unequivocal in their dismissal of any link between cloud seeding and the floods. “Cloud seeding had nothing to do” with the floods, stated Katja Friedrich, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Colorado Boulder.

“It’s just a complete conspiracy theory. Somebody is looking for somebody to blame,” Bob Rauber, a professor of atmospheric sciences at the University of Illinois, told TechCrunch.

These expert opinions highlight a significant disconnect between the public perception fueled by online speculation and the scientific understanding of cloud seeding and large-scale weather events.

Understanding Cloud Seeding: A Scientific Perspective

Cloud seeding is not a new or clandestine technology. It has been practiced since the 1950s, as noted by Professor Bob Rauber. At its core, cloud seeding is a weather modification technique that aims to increase precipitation (rain or snow) from clouds. It involves introducing small particles, known as seeding agents, into suitable clouds.

The most common seeding agent is silver iodide. Silver iodide particles are chosen because their crystalline structure is remarkably similar to that of ice crystals. This similarity is key to how cloud seeding works.

How Cloud Seeding Works

The process relies on the presence of “super-cooled” water droplets within clouds. Super-cooled water is liquid water that exists at temperatures below the normal freezing point (0°C or 32°F). These droplets are common in certain types of clouds at high altitudes.

When silver iodide particles are introduced into a cloud containing super-cooled water droplets, they act as artificial ice nuclei. The super-cooled water droplets come into contact with these particles and are triggered to freeze, forming ice crystals. This freezing process is crucial, according to Professor Bob Rauber.

Ice crystals have a distinct advantage over super-cooled water droplets in growing large enough to fall as precipitation. They grow rapidly by collecting water vapor from the surrounding air, a process called deposition. They can also grow by colliding with and collecting super-cooled water droplets, which freeze onto the ice crystal — a process called riming. These processes allow ice crystals to grow much faster than liquid water droplets in the same environment. If the water droplets had remained super-cooled liquid, there's a higher chance they would eventually evaporate before becoming large enough to fall.

For cloud seeding to be effective, the target clouds must meet specific criteria. Crucially, they must contain a sufficient amount of super-cooled water. Not all clouds are suitable candidates for seeding.

Where Cloud Seeding is Typically Effective

In the United States, cloud seeding is most commonly practiced during the winter months, particularly in the mountainous regions of the West. This is because the orographic clouds that form as air is forced up and over mountain ranges are ideal candidates for seeding.

As moist air is lifted by the mountains, it cools, and the water vapor condenses to form clouds. These clouds often contain significant amounts of super-cooled water. When properly seeded, these orographic clouds can be encouraged to release some of this water as snow. This additional snowfall contributes to the snowpack on the mountains, which acts as a natural reservoir. As temperatures rise in the spring, the melting snowpack replenishes artificial reservoirs behind dams, providing water for irrigation, municipal use, and hydroelectric power generation throughout the year.

The effectiveness and economic viability of winter orographic cloud seeding have been studied. For example, Idaho Power seeds clouds throughout the winter to boost water collection for hydroelectric power generation. “Their data shows that it’s cost-effective for them,” Professor Bob Rauber noted.

While cloud seeding has been around for decades, rigorous scientific evaluation of its impact on precipitation is a more recent development. “We really didn’t have the technologies to evaluate it until recently,” Rauber explained.

One of the most detailed studies to date was conducted in Idaho in early 2017 by scientists including Katja Friedrich and Bob Rauber. Over three separate seeding periods totaling just over two hours, they estimated that their efforts added approximately 186 million gallons of additional precipitation. This might sound like a substantial amount, and for drought-stricken areas reliant on snowpack, it can indeed make a difference.

The Texas Floods: A Different Meteorological Context

Comparing the precipitation generated by targeted cloud seeding operations in specific conditions to the immense scale of a major flood-producing storm reveals why the conspiracy theory linking cloud seeding to the Texas floods doesn't hold up scientifically.

The 186 million gallons of water added in the Idaho study, while locally significant, is minuscule when compared to the volume of water involved in a large storm system. “When we talk about that huge storm that occurred with the flooding [in Texas], we’re literally talking about the atmosphere processing trillions of gallons of water,” Professor Bob Rauber emphasized.

If Rainmaker’s cloud seeding had any influence on the Texas storm, its contribution would have been so small as to be negligible — barely a rounding error in the total volume of precipitation. But the scientific evidence suggests it had no influence at all.

Why Cloud Seeding Didn't Cause the Texas Floods

Several key meteorological factors explain why cloud seeding, even if conducted nearby, could not have caused or significantly worsened the Texas floods:

• Timing and Air Mass Movement: Rainmaker was reportedly seeding clouds days before the major storm hit the flood-affected areas. Weather systems, including the air masses they comprise, are constantly moving. “The air that was over that area two days before was probably somewhere over Canada by the time that storm occurred,” Professor Bob Rauber explained. This means the clouds that were potentially seeded were long gone from the region when the flood-producing storm developed and unleashed its rainfall.
• Cloud Type Differences: The clouds targeted in successful winter mountain seeding operations (orographic clouds) are different from the cumulus clouds that typically form in Texas during the summer. Cumulus clouds, especially those that develop into thunderstorms, behave differently and are not as responsive to seeding techniques designed for orographic clouds.
• Limited Effectiveness in Cumulus Clouds: While cloud seeders might attempt to enhance precipitation from summer cumulus clouds, their effectiveness is limited. These clouds tend to be short-lived and may not naturally produce significant precipitation. “The amount of rain that comes out of those seeded clouds is small,” Rauber noted.
• Efficiency of Deep Convective Storms: The type of deep, powerful thunderstorms that cause major flooding events are already highly efficient at producing precipitation through natural processes. “Clouds that are deep, like thunderstorms, the natural processes are just fine,” Rauber said. “Those clouds are very efficient. Seeding those clouds is not going to do anything.” The natural dynamics within these large, energetic storm systems dwarf any potential impact from seeding.

The scale of the natural atmospheric processes involved in generating a flood-inducing storm is orders of magnitude greater than the marginal increases in precipitation that cloud seeding can potentially achieve under optimal conditions. Attempting to link a localized cloud seeding operation conducted days earlier to a massive, naturally occurring weather event is scientifically unfounded.

The Role of Natural Factors in the Floods

Major flood events like those seen in Texas are the result of complex interactions between atmospheric conditions, including large-scale weather patterns, atmospheric moisture content, storm duration, and intensity. Factors such as slow-moving storm systems, high atmospheric humidity, and specific storm structures can lead to prolonged periods of heavy rainfall over a concentrated area, overwhelming drainage systems and causing floods.

Climate change is also increasingly recognized as a factor that can influence the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events, including heavy rainfall. A warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture, potentially leading to more intense precipitation during storms.

Focusing on a conspiracy theory like cloud seeding distracts from the real, scientifically understood drivers of such disasters and the important conversations needed about climate resilience, infrastructure, and emergency preparedness.

Conclusion: Science vs. Speculation

While the human desire to find a clear cause and assign blame after a tragedy is understandable, it is crucial to rely on scientific evidence and expert analysis rather than unfounded speculation. The claim that a cloud-seeding startup caused or significantly worsened the Texas floods is firmly rejected by atmospheric scientists based on their understanding of cloud physics, weather systems, and the limited capabilities of current cloud seeding technology.

Cloud seeding is a tool with specific applications, primarily aimed at increasing snowpack in winter mountain regions or, in some cases, providing marginal increases in rainfall in suitable summer clouds. It is not a mechanism capable of generating or amplifying a massive, flood-producing storm system processing trillions of gallons of water.

The devastating Texas floods were a natural disaster driven by powerful, large-scale meteorological phenomena. Attributing them to cloud seeding is, as Professor Bob Rauber put it, “just a complete conspiracy theory” — a search for a scapegoat in the face of overwhelming natural forces. Understanding the true causes of such events requires looking to atmospheric science, not unfounded claims about weather manipulation by companies like Rainmaker.